Tennessee vs. Alabama Predictions & Picks: Spread, Total – March 1

Published 1:49 pm Friday, February 28, 2025

Saturday’s game between the No. 5 Tennessee Volunteers (23-5, 10-5 SEC) and No. 6 Alabama Crimson Tide (23-5, 12-3 SEC) at Thompson-Boling Arena should be a tight matchup, as our computer prediction projects a final score of 77-76, with Tennessee securing the victory. Game time is at 4 p.m. ET on March 1.

According to our computer prediction, Alabama projects to cover the 4.5-point spread in its matchup against Tennessee. The over/under is listed at 155.5, and the two sides are projected to come in below that total.

Tennessee vs. Alabama Game Info & Odds

Date: Saturday, March 1, 2025
Time: 4 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Live stream: Watch this game on Fubo (Regional restrictions may apply)
Where: Knoxville, Tennessee
Venue: Thompson-Boling Arena
Line: Tennessee -4.5
Point total: 155.5
Moneyline (to win): Tennessee -178, Alabama +146

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Tennessee vs. Alabama Score Prediction

Prediction:
Tennessee 77, Alabama 76

Spread & Total Prediction for Tennessee vs. Alabama

Pick ATS: Alabama (+4.5)
Pick OU: Under (155.5)

Both Tennessee and Alabama are 16-12-0 against the spread (ATS) so far this season. A total of 11 out of the Volunteers’ games this season have hit the over, and 17 of the Crimson Tide’s games have gone over. The teams combine to score 165.8 points per game, 10.3 more points than this matchup’s total. In the last 10 games, Tennessee has a 5-5 record against the spread while going 7-3 overall. Alabama has gone 6-4 against the spread and 8-2 overall in its last 10 matches.

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Tennessee Performance Insights

The Volunteers outscore opponents by 13.5 points per game (scoring 74.3 points per game to rank 171st in college basketball while allowing 60.8 per outing to rank fifth in college basketball) and have a +380 scoring differential overall.
The 34.5 rebounds per game Tennessee averages rank 59th in the country, and are 7.6 more than the 26.9 its opponents record per contest.
Tennessee knocks down 8.5 three-pointers per game (95th in college basketball), 1.3 more than its opponents (7.2). It is shooting 34.4% from beyond the arc (150th in college basketball) while allowing opponents to shoot 27.6%.
The Volunteers put up 100.0 points per 100 possessions (79th in college basketball), while giving up 81.8 points per 100 possessions (fourth in college basketball).
Tennessee has committed 9.9 turnovers per game (50th in college basketball play), 1.3 fewer than the 11.2 it forces on average (201st in college basketball).

Alabama Performance Insights

The Crimson Tide are outscoring opponents by 11.4 points per game, with a +319 scoring differential overall. They put up 91.5 points per game (first in college basketball) and give up 80.1 per contest (348th in college basketball).
Alabama is second in the country at 39.8 rebounds per game. That’s 7.3 more than the 32.5 its opponents average.
Alabama knocks down 10.6 three-pointers per game (11th in college basketball), 3.5 more than its opponents.
Alabama has committed 12.5 turnovers per game (295th in college basketball), 2.5 more than the 10.0 it forces (312th in college basketball).

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